Two tropical waves stand out in an otherwise, very quiet Atlantic Ocean...
Satellite and surface observations show that a low pressure system is associated to a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A strong influence of the ITCZ on the south side of the system is noted in visible satellite images.
12Z OPC Analysis shows the tropical wave passing 30W with a 1012 low pressure embedded in the system.
A 1602Z ASCAT pass revealed a closed circulation and some (potentially contaminated) 30kts vectors.
In fact, buoy observations near the system shows westerly winds of 23kts south of the low and easterly winds to its north. The circulation is indeed well-defined and broad, but lacking any deep convection near the center.
Vertical shear is weak to moderate, out of the east with a magnitude of 5-15 kts in the area, per CIMSS:
It appears that a strong upper-level low will inhibit any chances of this system to develop into a tropical cyclone as it heads towards the Caribbean. In fact, none of the global models analyzed for this post (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, CMC & NAVGEM) show development of this system due to strong shear and lots of dry (stable) air in its environment.
Notice the strong upper-level low forecast by the GFS to be present just east of the Antilles in 3 days.
This system will be monitored, but it appears that it will be another wave to its east the one to be watched for tropical cyclone development in a few days. For now, the Atlantic remains quiet in a particularly hostile Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014.
The tropical wave to its east has a better chance of formation:
Greensboro, NC (8/15/2014) 12:37pm
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