Heavy rainfall and some strong winds are possible...
Tropical cyclone development will be slow due to the large nature of this system. Detachment from the ITCZ occurred, this being reflected in the markedly poleward track of today.
Vertical wind shear remains low, with an upper-level ridge nearly collocated with the low, thus favoring outflow development for deep convection:
SAB Dvorak estimates are of 1.0/25kts.
An ASCAT pass revealed the elongated surface circulation associated to this system. This represents a hindering factor for any significant intensification. Any deepening trend will be slow, as long as the broad circulation remains elongated an coarse.
Later down the road, significant land interaction is possible if INVEST 96L ends up passing directly over Hispaniola. This will be determinant in the future intensity of the system.
In terms of track, it appears that the trough I mentioned in the past two blog posts (check archive) will be strong enough to erode the Bermuda High in its western quadrant. This will open weaker steering currents and a more northwestward track of INVEST 96L. Should it intensify, a recurvature east of the US coastline will be a plausible scenario. The weaker the system, the more westerly the track will be in response to the low-level tradewinds. It will all depend on its eventual intensity.
For the moment, it seems like a strong tropical wave with heavy rainfall at times and some gusty winds will be affecting the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow. Any development into a tropical depression or even weak tropical storm won't represent a major change in this forecast. Similar conditions to those in BERTHA are possible, though this system might bring more rain and strong winds due to its larger size.
Trackwise, a NW track near Puerto Rico, then near Hispaniola or just to its north, towards the Bahamas seems like the most likely one, for now.
12Z Guidance:
INVEST 96L may follow a similar track to BERTHA a few weeks ago. Climatologically speaking, storms do repeat tracks from their predecessors in a same hurricane season.
BERTHA's track:
Greensboro, NC (8/21/2014) 1:47pm
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