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Weaker forecast solutions become likely as INVEST 96L nears the Antilles...
INVEST 96L organizing east of the Lesser Antilles... Latest satellite images hint at the development of a closed circulation, in part thanks to a very strong interaction with southwesterly low-level moist inflow into the system. It has the characteristics of a monsoonal type system, such as many examples in the Western Pacific Ocean. Its large, broad, and directly attached to the ITCZ, for now.
Large systems struggle to organize internally, they usually do it at a slower pace, but are more robust than their smaller counterparts. The strong SW inflow will keep the source of moisture and instability, thus favoring deep convective development.
As for now, a strong surge of southwesterly inflow converging into the wave axis may favor an ITCZ break-up and developing a low pressure with the possibility of cyclogenesis. This may be happening near 12N, 51W. We have to wait and see.
The most recent ASCAT pass also shows the strong southwesterly inflow and the axis of the ITCZ directly interacting with INVEST 96 (below):
Models: Intensity and track forecasts
A shift towards the north with a weaker storm (not even storm in some cases) has trended in recent runs. As I write this, the 12Z GFS run is coming out, with a weaker storm and a more NW track.
This track to the NW is explained by a deepening mid to upper-level trough that will emerge off the US east coast and erode the ridge in the Western Atlantic, thus favoring a more northerly track, even recurvature. Such track will imply significant land interaction with islands, such as Hispaniola with 10,000 ft mountains. This may influence on the system, with the potential of disrupting the hypothetical circulation enough to dissipate it, if it develops into a weak/moderate storm.
The trough that may influence INVEST 90L's potential track is currently located over the Great Lakes (below):
The influence of this trough may be enough to make the system turn NW, but may not be enough to make it recurve. Its difficult to tell at the moment. Evidently, guidance is currently showing a S. Florida threat, for now. This is likely going to keep changing... The never-ending business of model analysis and guessing.
An upper-level ridge will move close to the system and will provide a relatively favorable environment in terms of shear.
The European model (ECMWF) has insisted in little to no development of INVEST 96L... A very reliable model needs to be taken into consideration. In its 00Z run, ECMWF hinted that it will be a wave crossing through the Greater Antilles and emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, maybe closing a low before landfall near Louisiana more than 200 hours away.
Anywhere from the Gulf coast, to North Carolina, to even a total recurvature east of the US are within the cone of possibilities of INVEST 96L.
That said, there are lots of uncertainties, and we can only conclude that a tropical wave with potential of tropical cyclone development will be near the Lesser Antilles and approaching Puerto Rico in two days.
Greensboro, NC (8/20/2014) 12:43pm
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